Insurance Solutions for Farmers Facing Uncertainty from Trump’s Trade War-Why Demand Risk from Trade Wars Is Pushing Farmers Toward Insurance Coverage

 "Trump’s Trade War Is Backfiring: US Farmers Face Mounting Demand Risks"

An Article Based on Bloomberg Reporting by Michael Hirtzer, Dayanne Sousa, and Ilena Peng

It’s 2025, and the ripple effects of a trade war that shook the U.S. economy nearly a decade ago are still being felt—especially by American farmers. The trade tensions, originally ignited by former President Donald Trump’s tariffs on China and other trading partners, have left a lasting impact on agriculture, which has struggled to adjust to shifting global demand, disrupted supply chains, and an evolving geopolitical landscape.

Farmers, many of whom once relied on the Chinese market as a key importer of crops like soybeans and corn, find themselves facing an uncertain future. The issue isn’t just about trade barriers anymore. It's about something deeper: demand risk. As farmers gear up for planting season in 2025, they’re asking a fundamental question: "Will global buyers still want what we grow?"

This question isn’t hypothetical. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. exported $23 billion worth of agricultural products to China in 2021—down from $24 billion in 2017, before the tariffs began escalating. Even with some recent trade agreements and Phase One deals aimed at easing tensions, the long-term effects on demand are evident. Farmers are no longer just battling the elements or market volatility. They’re facing a rapidly shifting world of international trade that’s changing their ability to forecast sales, plan crops, and secure stable income.

Take, for example, John Thompson, a fourth-generation soybean farmer in Iowa. Thompson used to count on steady export demand to China, but since the tariffs hit, his margins have tightened, and his long-term contracts are fewer and farther between. "It’s a lot harder to predict anything now," Thompson says. "One year, we’re shipping tons of soybeans to China, and the next, we’re looking for new markets while domestic prices tumble."

And he’s not alone. The National Farmers Union (NFU) reports that 2025 is shaping up to be a year where demand uncertainty continues to plague farmers, particularly those in the Midwestern "corn belt." With the global economy reeling from the impacts of the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the ongoing struggles between the U.S. and China, the traditional export-heavy farming model is under siege.

This isn't just an American problem. Global agricultural markets are increasingly interconnected, and U.S. farmers aren’t the only ones feeling the strain. As trade wars continue to brew, especially in regions like Southeast Asia, farmers around the world are facing similar uncertainties. China, the world’s largest importer of soybeans, is diversifying its sources, seeking out suppliers from Brazil, Argentina, and even Russia. While these moves may seem like opportunities for other countries, for U.S. farmers, they represent a shrinking pool of buyers.

Meanwhile, domestic consumers aren’t exactly rushing in to fill the gap. Despite a growing push for local farming and sustainability, U.S. agricultural products face increased competition from global producers who can offer similar goods at lower prices. The irony here is stark: The very trade war that was meant to help American businesses is, in some cases, threatening to squeeze them out of the global market altogether.

Farmers in 2025 are more than just food producers—they’re now navigating the complex and high-stakes world of international trade, where shifts in foreign policy, tariffs, and global supply chains can make or break their livelihoods. The ongoing trade uncertainties are forcing them to rethink long-held assumptions about demand. For many, there’s no fallback plan; they are locked into a fragile dance with global economics, climate change, and an increasingly unpredictable world market.

As we move further into 2025, the question is no longer if these trade tensions will subside, but how they will continue to shape the future of American farming. Will farmers be able to adapt to the shifting tides, or will the anxiety over demand risk drive them to seek alternative paths in a rapidly changing agricultural landscape?

When Politics Tramples the Fields: Why Crop Insurance Might Be the Most Underrated Safety Net in 2025

Let’s start with something simple: farming isn’t just a job. It’s a gamble. Every year, farmers bet on the weather, global demand, the cost of diesel, and now—more than ever—on geopolitics.

That last part? It’s been hitting harder lately. If you’ve been following the headlines, you’ll know that the U.S. has reignited its trade war with China. Again. Only this time, it feels different—sharper, messier, and more dangerous for the people who have the least control over it.

Soybeans, Tariffs, and the Domino Effect

Here’s the deal: in 2024, U.S. soybean exports totaled nearly $25 billion. That’s not small potatoes (or soybeans, technically). China bought nearly half of that, making them the biggest player at the table. When the Trump administration doubled down on tariffs in early 2025, it was like flipping the board mid-game. Markets tanked. Futures dipped. And farmers like Yoder got stuck in the middle—again.

Now, this isn’t just a story about soybeans. This is about demand risk, which is quickly becoming the scariest phrase in a farmer’s vocabulary. Think about it: if China decides Brazil’s soybeans are just fine (and they increasingly do), what happens to the American farmer? You can’t exactly "pivot" a field of corn overnight.

And here’s where it gets real.

The Financial Tightrope

Agriculture is a razor-thin-margin business even in good years. But when exports get shaky, costs stay high, and prices fall? That’s when farms go under.

This is why Crop Insurance and Revenue Protection Insurance aren’t just policy tools—they’re lifelines.

Let’s break it down. Crop Insurance, particularly through the Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP), helps protect farmers against yield losses due to weather disasters—floods, droughts, hailstorms. Think of it as a safety net when nature decides to be cruel.

But that’s only part of the puzzle. What about prices? What if you grow a beautiful crop... that no one wants to buy? That’s where Revenue Protection Insurance (RP) steps in. RP covers both yield and price fluctuations. So if soybeans drop in value because of, say, a sudden tariff war or China ghosting the U.S. market? Farmers aren’t left totally exposed.

In 2025, with commodity volatility at its highest in over a decade, enrollment in RP has surged. According to USDA data released this March, over 78% of eligible U.S. cropland is now covered under some form of revenue protection—a historic high.

Why This Should Matter to You (Yes, You)

Okay, maybe you’re not a farmer. Maybe you live in an apartment, and your closest connection to agriculture is oat milk in your fridge. But here’s the thing: if the farm economy collapses, everyone feels it.

Food prices spike. Supply chains stall. Rural economies shrink. And eventually, the urban centers—where most of us live—feel the tremors too.

Even more critically, this affects climate resilience. Farms with financial protection can afford to experiment—plant cover crops, invest in regenerative practices, adopt solar. Without that buffer, they’re stuck in survival mode.

And honestly? No one innovates when they’re in survival mode.

The Policy Blind Spot

Here’s what stings: a lot of the folks making trade decisions in Washington don’t seem to fully grasp these ripple effects. When tariffs are treated like tweets—fast, emotional, reactive—farmers are the ones who absorb the aftershock. And while subsidies and bailouts make for good headlines, they’re not substitutes for long-term stability.

That’s why modernizing and expanding access to crop insurance is more than a bureaucratic fix—it’s an economic necessity. Especially for younger farmers, who often lack the capital to weather a bad year without serious help.

Betting on the Future

Back in Ohio, Josh Yoder is still farming. Still waiting. Still hoping that someone in D.C. remembers that a strong America starts with stable farms. But he’s also diversified his risk—through crop insurance, through smaller local contracts, through side ventures like agritourism and solar leasing.

Because while politicians play chess or checkers or whatever game this is supposed to be, folks like him? They’re just trying to make it through the season without losing the farm.

And in 2025, that’s not a metaphor. That’s reality.

When Trade Wars Hit the Heartland: Why U.S. Farmers Are Growing Uneasy

By now, we’re used to the drama of global trade. Tariffs fly. Tweets escalate. Leaders posture. But when policy decisions become personal—when they land squarely on the backs of the people who literally feed the country—that drama starts to feel more like a crisis.

Enter Josh Yoder, a fifth-generation farmer in Ohio. He’s not new to the game. His roots run deep in the land, the kind of roots that only grow from decades of sunrise-to-sunset work, prayer for rain, and a respect for seasons that don’t care about politics. Yoder is also a longtime supporter of Donald Trump. But as 2025 unfolds, he’s beginning to question whether the former president's aggressive stance against China is a strategy with long-term gain—or a high-stakes gamble with short-term pain.

“The world is trying to figure out if Trump is playing chess or checkers,” Yoder said recently. “If it’s chess, we might come out stronger. If it’s checkers, we’re in for a rough ride.”

This isn’t just a personal dilemma—it’s one shared by a significant swath of America's agricultural backbone. From Iowa to Indiana, Kansas to Kentucky, the quiet hum of concern is getting louder. Farmers are tightening their belts, reevaluating forecasts, and hoping that geopolitical moves made in D.C. don’t bulldoze the economies of small towns far from the coasts.

Why China Matters So Much

Let’s talk soybeans.

In the complex web of global trade, soybeans might not seem like a headliner. But they’re the Beyoncé of U.S. agricultural exports—versatile, high in demand, and a key player in international markets. In 2024, soybean exports brought in nearly $25 billion, making it the single most valuable bulk commodity the U.S. ships out.

And here’s the kicker: nearly half of those exports went to China.

That’s not a small dependency—it’s a lifeline. China, home to more than 1.4 billion people and a growing middle class, has a hunger for protein. Soybeans are a key ingredient in animal feed, making them essential to the production of pork, chicken, and other meats. As the demand for meat rises in China, so too does the demand for soybeans.

When Trump launched his renewed trade war in early 2025, escalating tariffs and reigniting tensions with Beijing, the reaction from markets was immediate and dramatic. Soy futures plunged. Commodity traders held their breath. And farmers like Yoder? They started to seriously worry.

"Demand Risk" Isn’t Just a Buzzword

When you talk to farmers today, a term you’ll hear thrown around more than ever is “demand risk.” That’s the fear that buyers—especially major buyers like China—could pull back, shift suppliers, or simply stop showing up.

“Soybeans don’t store forever,” Yoder explained. “If we can’t sell what we grow, it’s not like we just wait it out. Our whole cash flow depends on these exports.”

And it’s not just soybeans. Corn, wheat, pork, beef—all are part of a delicate ecosystem that ties U.S. agriculture to the rest of the world. When one market gets shaky, the ripple effect can stretch across the entire Midwest. Tractor companies like John Deere, fertilizer manufacturers, seed innovators—all feel the tremors when exports drop.

Politics Meets Real Life

The irony in all this? Many of the hardest-hit areas are also among Trump’s most loyal bases. In 2020 and again in 2024, rural voters overwhelmingly backed him, drawn in by promises of economic revitalization, tough-on-China rhetoric, and policies aimed at restoring American manufacturing.

But now, in 2025, that loyalty is being tested—not necessarily by a change in ideology, but by the realities of economics.

“It’s not that we don’t support what Trump says he’s trying to do,” said Yoder. “It’s just that we need to see how it helps us—not hurts us. Because right now, it’s mostly hurt.”

It’s a sentiment echoed in coffee shops and grain elevators across the heartland. Support isn’t disappearing, but it is becoming more conditional. Farmers want results, not just rhetoric. They want certainty. And above all, they want to know that they’ll be able to make it to the next planting season.

A Changing Global Landscape

One of the biggest concerns going forward is that China might simply move on. Brazil, for example, is more than happy to fill in the gap. Over the past few years, Brazil has massively increased its soybean production, with support from Chinese investment and infrastructure deals.

In 2024 alone, Brazilian soybean exports to China rose by over 30%, while U.S. exports dipped. And in a post-pandemic, climate-affected world where supply chains are being rethought and allies re-evaluated, it's not hard to imagine China deciding that America isn’t the reliable partner it once was.

That’s a long-term risk that could outlast any one administration—or any one trade war.

What Comes Next?

If there’s any upside to this uncertainty, it’s that it’s forcing hard conversations. About sustainability. About diversification. About the need for policy that doesn’t just make headlines but makes sense for people on the ground.

Many farmers are looking into alternative crops, renewable energy partnerships (solar panels are popping up across cornfields), and even direct-to-consumer models that bypass some of the global volatility. But these are long plays in a game that’s increasingly being decided by short-term moves.

Meanwhile, Washington continues to debate tariffs, trade deficits, and “winning” economic battles. But out here in the fields, “winning” looks different. It means a healthy crop, a steady buyer, and a future that isn’t so tied to political brinkmanship.

Farming, Politics, and the Long View

Farming has always been an act of faith—faith in the land, the weather, and the unseen future. It’s not a profession built for those chasing quick returns. And perhaps that’s what makes today’s trade tensions so frustrating for farmers like Josh Yoder.

They’re used to waiting. They’re used to enduring. But what they need right now isn’t another round of uncertainty. They need clear direction, sensible policy, and the kind of leadership that doesn’t turn their livelihoods into a chess match with global consequences.

Because while Washington plays the long game, folks in the heartland are just trying to make it through the season.

 

How Soybeans Got Caught in a Tug-of-War Between Superpowers—Again

By now, American farmers could probably write the playbook on how global politics turns their crops into chess pieces. This week, that familiar pattern played out again when former President Donald Trump, still a commanding figure in Republican politics and very much a potential presidential contender, announced fresh tariffs on Chinese imports. While other countries got a bit of a breather, China was singled out—and unsurprisingly, Beijing did not take it lightly.

In retaliation, China slapped higher tariffs on all U.S. imports, brushing off Washington’s actions as a “joke.” That’s not exactly the diplomatic language you’d expect between two economic heavyweights, but then again, trade wars aren’t known for their subtlety.

Let’s be honest: If you’re a soybean farmer in the Midwest, none of this feels like news. It’s more like déjà vu with a side of whiplash.

Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Tensions: A Sequel No One Asked For

Back in Trump’s first term, the U.S. and China went toe-to-toe in a trade standoff that upended decades of carefully nurtured agricultural diplomacy. The handshake deals and headline-worthy contract signings between Iowa officials and Chinese buyers—once a routine part of U.S.-China relations—screeched to a halt in 2017. It wasn’t until 2023 that those ceremonies finally resumed.

But in the six years between, China didn’t sit around waiting. Brazil, seeing an opening, stepped in and wooed Beijing like a seasoned diplomat with a bag full of beans—literally. Brazilian soybean exports surged, establishing new loyalties and pushing the U.S. further out of the picture.

The result? U.S. farmers were left with overflowing silos and shrinking hope. At one point during Trump’s first trade war, soybean inventories in the U.S. more than tripled. That’s not just a blip—that’s a market earthquake.

The Price of Politics

Fast forward to April 2025, and soybean futures in Chicago are trading around $9.70 a bushel, marking their lowest point since December and more than 10% down from the same time last year. That dip isn’t just numbers on a spreadsheet—it’s a gut punch for farmers already bracing for another round of uncertainty.

“Soybean prices are always sensitive to trade noise,” said Sarah Thomlinson, a commodities analyst based in St. Louis. “But this isn’t noise. This is a deliberate escalation.”

And farmers are feeling it. The Ag Economy Barometer, a monthly survey conducted by Purdue University in collaboration with CME Group, showed a noticeable drop in farmer sentiment in March. The index fell 12 points to 140, reflecting growing unease, especially regarding the outlook for exports. When asked about their expectations for U.S. agricultural exports over the next five years, respondents gave the gloomiest forecast since the question was first introduced in 2019.

The data tells one story, but the mood on the ground tells another. In rural coffee shops across Iowa, there's a sense of weariness, if not outright skepticism. “We’ve been here before,” one farmer in Story County told me. “It’s like déjà vu, only worse, because now we know what comes next.”

A Relationship Decades in the Making—And Unraveling

The U.S.-China soybean connection didn’t happen overnight. It was the product of decades of trust-building, market access negotiations, and yes, a little Midwestern charm. For many years, China represented a huge and growing market for U.S. agricultural exports. In 2012, China bought over 60% of U.S. soybean exports. It was a lifeline for American farmers—and a symbol of mutual economic benefit.

But relationships, as we know, can be fragile. And trade relationships? Even more so. With every tariff and retaliatory measure, the trust that underpinned that agricultural alliance eroded. The new tariffs, which come at a time when geopolitical tensions are already high—from Taiwan to TikTok bans—feel less like a standalone policy and more like another brick in the growing wall between Washington and Beijing.

In that sense, soybeans are the canary in the coal mine. When those prices drop and Chinese buyers start looking south to Brazil or Argentina instead, it’s a signal that something bigger is shifting.

Brazil’s Golden Opportunity

Brazil didn’t just step into the void left by U.S. policy missteps—it seized it with both hands. Over the past several years, the South American powerhouse has expanded its soybean acreage and built infrastructure to meet China’s growing demands. In 2024 alone, Brazil exported nearly 100 million metric tons of soybeans, with China as the primary buyer, according to data from Brazil’s agriculture ministry.

That kind of volume doesn’t happen without strategic intent. China has made it clear: it doesn’t want to be overly dependent on the U.S., especially when trade policy in Washington can flip overnight depending on who’s in office.

And here’s the kicker: Brazilian soybeans are often cheaper, partly due to currency advantages and lower labor costs. So even in a neutral geopolitical climate, China would have reasons to diversify. Add in political tensions? It’s a no-brainer.

So, What’s the Endgame?

That’s the trillion-dollar question. On one hand, Trump’s hardline stance on China appeals to voters who want to see America take a tougher stance on what they view as unfair trade practices. On the other, the economic collateral—especially for key voting blocs like rural farmers—is hard to ignore.

And let’s not forget: the agricultural vote helped Trump win the presidency in 2016. He knows it, and they know it. Which makes these tariffs even more puzzling.

If farmers feel burned twice by the same trade war playbook, it’s unclear whether loyalty at the ballot box will hold. “You can’t feed a family on political rhetoric,” another Illinois farmer told me. “You need markets.”

Looking Ahead to 2025 and Beyond

As the 2024 election dust settles and we look ahead into 2025, the agricultural sector finds itself once again bracing for impact. Will these new tariffs become a long-term fixture? Or are they a bargaining chip meant to push China to the negotiating table?

One thing is clear: the global agricultural landscape has changed. The U.S. can’t assume its old position as the go-to supplier. Countries like Brazil have proven themselves capable, reliable, and geopolitically safer bets. And while American farmers remain some of the most efficient and productive in the world, their success hinges not just on yield—but on access.

Trade relationships aren’t just about economics. They’re about trust, consistency, and diplomacy. And if the U.S. wants to rebuild its agricultural influence, it might need more than just tariffs—it needs a strategy.

Soybeans, Tariffs, and Trade Wars: How Brazil Quietly Took America’s Spot on China’s Speed Dial

Once upon a time—well, more like a decade ago—the U.S. and Brazil were neck and neck in the global soybean race. Think of it like the agricultural version of Formula One. For years, the two agricultural giants traded places at the top, revving their export engines toward the ever-hungry Chinese market. But fast-forward to 2025, and Brazil isn’t just pulling ahead. It's practically lapping the U.S.

The reason? A perfect storm of smart investments, trade politics, and timing—and yes, a little bit of luck with the weather.

Let’s rewind to the Trump era, when tariffs became the buzzword in international trade. In response to Washington’s trade war tactics, particularly targeting China, Beijing began shopping around for more reliable food partners. That little shift in procurement policy has now turned into a full-blown supply chain realignment, and Brazil is laughing all the way to the port.

Brazil's Booming Soy Game

Earlier this week, Chinese buyers went on a soybean shopping spree, scooping up at least 40 shipments from Brazil in just a few days, according to Bloomberg. That’s not business as usual—that's a full-on rush order. What’s more interesting is who didn’t get those sales: the U.S.

Brazil, fueled by decades of investment in infrastructure (think upgraded ports, better highways, and storage facilities), has simply become a more attractive seller. With its soybean yields climbing thanks to good weather and improved farming techniques, the country has not only kept pace with demand but exceeded expectations. The National Association of Cereal Exporters (ANEC), which represents powerhouses like ADM and Bunge, expects Brazil to lock in an even bigger share of China’s soybean business.

That makes sense when you see what’s happening on the ground. In just two days last week, soybean prices at Brazil’s major ports shot up by over 50%. That’s not a blip—that’s a boom. Farmers, of course, saw dollar signs and locked in deals like there was no tomorrow. José Fabiano da Silva of Agrinvest reported that Brazil sold 1.2 million metric tons more than usual during that same week. And remember, this is the week Trump’s tariffs resurfaced in headlines.

China’s Quiet Pivot

China isn't being subtle about its intentions. After stocking up on U.S. soybeans in anticipation of tariffs—mostly for state reserves—commercial buyers are now turning away from American suppliers. They know Brazil can meet demand more consistently, and without the political baggage.

As of early 2025, China’s official soybean order book shows only 400,000 tons from the U.S.—a dramatic drop from the nearly 22 million tons earlier in the 2024 season. That’s not a slowdown; it’s a strategic disengagement.

To put this in perspective: China’s annual soybean appetite sits at around 109 million tons. If only a fraction of that is coming from the U.S., guess who’s stepping in to fill the void?

American Farmers: The View from the Heartland

On the other side of the hemisphere, American farmers are stuck in a holding pattern of “wait and see.” They're dealing with the whiplash of policy changes, unpredictable trade deals, and commodity prices that seem to shift with every presidential tweet—or now, algorithm-fed news cycle.

“The worst thing our farmers run into is that we can’t plan for anything,” said Andy Riffe, who manages Stratford Grain Co. in northern Texas. That frustration is echoed across the Midwest, where growers are reconsidering their crop choices. With both soybeans and corn delivering negative returns, according to the University of Illinois’ latest 2025 farm income reports, many are seriously thinking of shifting more acreage to corn. Not because it’s profitable, but because it’s slightly less painful.

There's one silver lining—Mexico. For now, it’s been spared from the latest round of U.S. tariffs, meaning corn exports south of the border can continue relatively unscathed. But that’s small comfort when your biggest customer (China) is buying its soybeans elsewhere.

Why This All Matters (Even if You Don’t Farm)

It’s easy to dismiss all this as something that only affects farmers or traders in suits yelling into phones on a commodities exchange. But the ripple effects of this trade shift are much bigger.

For starters, it reshapes the geopolitical map. China relying less on the U.S. for its food needs means reduced leverage for Washington in diplomatic negotiations. It also emboldens Brazil as a global food powerhouse, giving it more say in trade forums, environmental talks, and international development programs.

Then there's the climate angle. Brazil's agricultural boom comes with a caveat: much of the country’s expansion involves clearing forested land—especially in the Cerrado and parts of the Amazon basin. In 2024 alone, deforestation linked to soy farming rose 13%, according to Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research. That’s not just a Brazilian issue—it’s a planetary one.

Meanwhile, American agriculture is facing its own environmental reckoning. With extreme weather becoming more frequent and water availability tightening in key growing regions like California and the Great Plains, the idea of relying on stable production year over year is looking more and more like wishful thinking.

What Comes Next?

The bigger question looming over 2025 is: will this shift become permanent?

China is playing the long game. Its investments in Brazilian infrastructure—including helping fund new rail lines and inland ports—show that it’s not just dabbling in diversification. It’s committing to it. And Brazil, eager for the trade and investment, is more than happy to play host.

The U.S., meanwhile, is caught between trying to support its farmers and navigating an increasingly isolationist trade posture. As long as agricultural policy remains tethered to political cycles rather than long-term strategy, American farmers will continue to pay the price.

If you’re a 20-something scrolling through headlines wondering why any of this matters, consider this: trade wars might sound abstract, but they touch everything from the price of tofu to the economic stability of rural America. And beyond that, they shape who holds influence on the global stage.

Right now, Brazil is doing more than shipping soybeans. It’s rewriting the rules of who feeds the world—and who gets to call the shots.